Chile has struggled to become a thriving democracy. Once a dictatorship under Augusto Pinochet, the country has gone through considerable turmoil since his death. Capitalism has not treated everyone fairly in this country, even though Pinochet was once lauded for the dynamic free-market economy he created, once cited as the “model for the developing world.”
By no means has Chile been the only country which has struggled to become a free-market democracy. Russia is still struggling, decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Iraq really hasn’t accepted democracy as a political model, even after enormous amounts of investment by the US government. Other countries have struggled as well, but not with the same results.
Much of the problem that Chile has been experiencing has been due to the vast income inequality that exists in that country. While there are portions of the population which are thriving, many others are still suffering, especially those who are dependent on retirements that were established under the Pinochet regime. Many schoolteachers are still working into their 80’s, because they can’t survive on their $300 a month pension.
For those working in non-skilled jobs, public transit to take them to and from their work costs as much as 21% of their weekly wages. Thus, when the government announced a 30 peso rise in the cost of the metro, it was met with anger. A student-led protest, called evasión swarmed the metro, jumping the turnstiles to avoid paying the increased fare. Workers took advantage of the opportunity to save a little money and joined the protest.
While protests are nothing new in Chile, these seem to have gained traction. A demonstration which started in the capital has now spread to many of the major cities, with continued evasión of fares and widespread protests in the streets.
It appears that socialist organizers and anarchists have joined in the protests, working to turn it to their political ends. As in many such cases, word coming out of Chile is a bit confused, with each side accusing the other of what they themselves are doing. Much of the reporting is tainted by the political leanings of the reporters who are on the scene. But one thing is certain, the government’s response doesn’t stand up under scrutiny.
The Government’s Response
President Sebastián Piñera has declared that his country is “at war.” But if it is, it’s a war between the government and the citizens. While some government response is required to the violent acts of the protesters, that should be a police response, arresting the worst of the offenders and those who are inciting others to commit illegal acts. Protests, as our own government has learned, are not the reason to call out military forces armed and equipped to use deadly force.
We’ve seen that before in this country; at Kent State University in 1970. National Guard troops were called out in response to a protest. Although the National Guard does receive some training in how to respond to a riot, they are first and foremost soldiers, equipped and trained to kill, not to arrest people. In this case, the results were four dead college students and another nine who were injured.
The soldiers on the streets of Chile reminded many of the older citizens of the years of Chilean dictatorship, when such sights were common; a parallel that was lost on the students who started the protest. For the older citizens, that sight struck fear in their hearts.
The government has admitted to eight people being killed in the protests, but information leaking out of the country claims over 20 killed. There are also widespread reports of police and military brutality against the population, including against people who were not protesting, but merely in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Martial law was declared by the President, early on in the protests, allowing for the use of military forces and imposing ever more restrictive curfews on the people. Interestingly enough, whenever the protesters have gotten the upper hand, troops have retreated to wealthy areas of the cities, focusing on protecting the wealth centers. It seems clear from that action alone, that the leadership of the country is only interested in protecting their financial standing, not protecting the people.
Under martial law, police and military forces have beaten hundreds or perhaps even thousands of innocent people, often plucking them off the streets in civilian clothes, in an attempt to hide their identity. Civil rights are being trampled daily, as the government attempts to regain control.
Could that Happen Here?
Regardless of where you stand politically, Americans have grown afraid of politicians on the other side, especially as the political divide has grown. Each side assumes that the other is likely to declare martial law, on the thinnest of pretexts, imprisoning those who have declared themselves aligned with the other side. Yet that sort of thing has never happened in this country. For that matter, we haven’t seen people rounded up and put in any sort of detention camps since World War II.
Those on the left decry the “oligarchy” regularly, declaring that this country is actually run by them. But I’d like to propose a different viewpoint on that. That is, every government that has ever existed has been an oligarchy of one sort or another. Even monarchies are oligarchies, as the wealth is concentrated in the hands of the royalty.
Successful merchants could buy themselves titles under such a regime, gaining political respectability. But that’s not all they bought; they bought access to the throne, the seat of power. That’s what their titles and their money did for them, just like the oligarchy we have today.
Why is this important? Because in reality it has always been the oligarchy, the elite, who have been in control. I don’t care if you’re talking about the Rothchilds, the Bilderberg group, George Soros or our own political parties, they have kept the power to themselves. Much of the reason why they hate President Trump, is that he has defied their rule and has been working to do whatever he can to overthrow it.
As we’ve seen in the last few years, these power-brokers will do whatever they have to, in order to keep their power. Rumors have existed for years about how the Clintons have done away with anyone who could be a whistleblower on their nefarious actions. The same sort of rumors existed about Obama when he was in office. I’m sure if we searched around the world, we would find many more examples.
The accumulation of power and money is the central focus of these people’s lives. As such, they will do whatever it takes to retain that money and power. They don’t mind if we “little people” accumulate wealth or even some local power; but they aren’t sharing theirs with us. They will use whatever they have to, in order to keep control. Whatever they have to includes military forces.
These power brokers have control of large portions of our government, just like they do in other countries. As long as things go their way, they will allow us the illusion of our freedom. But if things don’t go their way, you can be sure they will take the necessary action to retain power.
What that Means for Us
One big difference between the United States and Chile is the Second Amendment. Even though there are those who are constantly chipping away, trying to take that right, the Second Amendment guarantees our right to keep and bear arms. There is no such equivalent in Chile.
That’s not to say that the Chilean people can’t own firearms. They can; but there are huge hurdles to overcome in order to get a permit to own one. Even bigger hurdles exist to having a permit to carry that gun outside your home. On top of that, private ownership of semi-automatic arms is prohibited.
Should martial law ever be declared in the United States, you can almost guarantee that it will be accompanied by widespread gun confiscation. This happened in New Orleans, in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Probably the only thing that kept that from turning ugly and kept armed citizens from defending their right to keep and bear arms, was that there were so few of them still in the city; government forces had them outnumbered.
Many have declared that widespread gun confiscations would result in civil war. I tend to agree with that. While there are many gun owners who would give up their guns, albeit reluctantly, rather than fight government troops, there are enough of us who would stand up for our rights. How that war would end is anyone’s guess.
Recently, the new Democrat majority in Virginia’s state legislature passed a number of very restrictive gun control laws, without taking into account public opinion. They ended up being forced to retract those laws, when citizens got up in arms about it and law enforcement officers declared that they would not enforce those laws.
The same thing has happened in other parts of the country, as Democrat controlled state legislatures have tried over and over again to tamper with our Second Amendment rights. But in each and every case, while there have been some who have complied like good little sheeple, the majority refused.
This means that any protests against government overreach here in the United States have the potential of becoming much more violent than they do in other countries. While those of us on the right, who own most of the guns, are not the kind to take violent action, there are always a few who don’t see it that way. All it takes is one or two of them to start the ball rolling, and things could turn ugly, real quickly.
A second American Civil War would be even bloodier than the first. Not only are there more privately owned guns in the hands of citizens, than there are citizens, but the level of military technology has increased by several orders of magnitude. Hunters alone have our military grossly outnumbered. On the other side, the military has all the tanks, planes and artillery. As I said, it would be bloody.
This is probably why there are those in government service who are so bent on disarming the population. It also explains why the AR-15 is the main target of these people. You can’t win a war with pistols and even trying to win it without semi-automatic rifles would be difficult. Those who want to control us don’t want us to be able to fight back.
Throughout the last century, there have been numerous examples of what happens when the government disarms the civilian population. What we’re seeing in Chile today is nothing new; it has been done time and time again. Those who want to be despotic dictators (regardless of what political name they hide behind) know they must disarm the people first. It’s much easier to get sheep to submit, than it is to get sheep dogs too. The sheep dogs have teeth.
If anything, Chile serves as one more reminder as to why we need to defend our Second Amendment rights. Otherwise, it’s much too easy for those who would take away what remains of our liberty, the freedom to do so.
While the mainstream media propagandists continue to push the lie of a robust recovering economy, the fact is, we are in some serious fiscal trouble. Economies around the world are crashing, countries are drowning in record amounts of debt, and governments continue to pile on new debt like there’s no tomorrow.
What is an Economic Collapse?
Economic collapse, in its simplest definition, means a sudden and severe drop in currency value, leading to a financial crisis. It usually happens when the country’s economic activities are mismanaged or when an unexpected event throws the country into chaos. Some examples of such events are terrorist attacks, natural disasters, political upheaval, severe social unrest, financial bubbles , a collapse in government, and pandemics.
A look at Prior Economic Disasters, Depressions and Market Collapses
Throughout the history of the world, there have been many instances where countries have experienced an economic collapse, leading to severe consequences such as hyperinflation, high unemployment rates, and poverty. In extreme cases, economic collapse can even lead to a societal breakdown, with people experiencing shortages, social unrest, and struggling to survive.
The earliest recorded economic collapse occurred in 176 BC when the Roman Republic experienced a severe financial crisis that eventually led to massive inflation and debasement of the currency. The government’s response to this crisis was to issue more coins with decreased silver content, resulting in worsening hyperinflation and a sharp decline in the purchasing power of its citizens. This eventually led to social unrest and political instability, eroding the strength of the Roman Empire over time.
Another significant economic collapse occurred during the Great Depression of the 1930s, triggered by the stock market crash of 1929. During this period, businesses failed, banks collapsed, and unemployment soared to unprecedented levels worldwide. The depression had far-reaching negative consequences, some of which ultimately led to World War II.
In 1997, the Asian Financial Crisis rocked Southeast Asia, causing widespread economic instability and social unrest. The crisis began with the devaluation of the Thai baht, leading to investors withdrawing their capital from other Southeast Asian countries. This, in turn, led to a sharp decline in the value of their currencies and an economic recession. As a result, millions lost their jobs, and poverty rates rose steeply. Some nations recovered relatively quickly, while others, such as Indonesia, suffered profound economic and political upheaval for several years.
The most recent collapse occurred in 2008 when the subprime mortgage crisis shook the global financial markets. The crisis began with predatory lending practices by mortgage lenders, high-risk borrowing by homeowners, and the buying and selling of risky loans between financial institutions. When homeowners began to default on their mortgages, banks and insurance companies suffered huge losses, and trust in the financial system evaporated almost overnight. As a result, governments worldwide were forced to intervene to avoid a total collapse of the financial system.
As history shows, it’s not if but when! Therefore, preparing for an economic collapse is vital to your survival, especially in today’s world, where the global economy is interdependent. Any event, even those in other parts of the world, can have a ripple effect on other countries. This article will provide tips on how to prepare for economic collapse.
Are we heading towards an Economic Collapse?
At some point this debt train is going to come to a screeching halt; when that happens we are going to see panic and chaos like nothing we’ve ever seen before.
As we’ve been covering for some time now, a look at the numbers and data shows we are heading for a potential disaster. From a series of high profile banks going bust to record inflation combined with major supply chain shortages, our economy seems to be heading right off the cliff.
The world, especially the United States, is drowning in debt.
The United States, once the world’s shining example of fiscal security and responsibility, has become shackled by a record amount of debt. We are literally drowning in debt.
Over the next ten years, experts think that debt could balloon to over $50 trillion. While that might seem like an insurmountable amount of debt to recover from, the fact is, we have already surpassed that number many times over.
When factoring in unfunded liabilities like Social Security, Medicare, government pension plans and Obamacare, the true debt number is actually much higher. Estimates put the real number somewhere between $222 trillion to $250 trillion.
But it’s not just the government, people are borrowing at record levels as well.
Household debt increased at the fastest pace in 15 years, partially due to huge increases in credit card usage and mortgage balances.
Credit card balances rose more than 15% from 2021, the largest annual jump in more than 20 years.
Total Consumer Debt is now over $2.36 Trillion, an increase of 7.3 per cent in Q3 2023 compared to last year.
The overall Economic numbers are downright Scary!
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U.S. money supply, which measures safe assets households and businesses can use to make payments, has fallen abruptly since March and is negative on a yearly basis for the first time since 2006.
Mortgage payments as a share of income have doubled from 13% to 26%, and the savings rate has plummeted to almost zero.
Total household debt increased by 8.5% in 2022 and now stands at a record $16.9 trillion. That’s $2.75 trillion higher than it was pre-pandemic.
Sales of commercial mortgage bonds have taken a nose dive, plummeting about 85% year-over-year as commercial real estate investors are bracing for what looks like a wave of defaults throughout the commercial real estate industry.
What can you expect during a major Economic Collapse?
A Run on the Banks: One of the first things you will see is a run on the banks. People are going to be panicking, and they will be doing everything they can to get their hands on cash to buy extra supplies.
Chaos in the Streets: Once the banks run dry, you will see people turn desperate. The moment they realize the money is gone is the moment you will see widespread chaos sweep throughout the country. Riots, looting, and widespread violence will break out, making self-defense one of your primary concerns.
Martial Law: When things start to go bad, I believe you will see the government declare a state of emergency or Martial Law. When this happens you will see things like travel restrictions, mandatory curfews, and the suspension of Constitutional rights.
So what should you do to prepare for an economic collapse?
Are you prepared to survive a total economic collapse?
If you haven’t already, it’s time to put together a plan of action. The fact is, the writing has been on the wall for some time now, and we probably don’t have much time left.
If and when things go bad, and money starts to become scarce, do you have a plan? What if we suffer a complete meltdown and collapse of the economy?
I devoted an entire section to financial preparedness and the coming collapse of the economy in my book, The Ultimate Situational Survival Guide; because I firmly believe it’s one of the most serious threats we face.
The first thing you need to do is Develop a Plan of Action.
The first step in preparing for an economic collapse is to have a plan. You should have a clear idea of what to do in case of a financial crisis. This plan should include steps you would take to protect yourself and your family.
A good starting point would be to have some emergency savings. These savings should be enough to cover your living expenses for at least six months. This could be in cash, precious metals, or other assets that can hold value during a financial crisis.
Another important aspect of your plan should be to have a source of income not affected by the collapse. This could be through investing in assets that will not lose value during a crisis, such as gold or silver (or good ol beans and bullets!). Alternatively, you could start a side business that provides a steady income stream.
If things go bad, having a plan of action will help increase your chances of surviving the chaos. Check out my list of Essential Preparedness Tips, Skills, and Resources to Prepare for Disasters & Threats.
Start being Smart with your Money
During the 2008 financial collapse, millions of Americans lost their homes, cars and personal possessions because they saddled with debt. Since the so-called COVID pandemic, that trend has begun again with millions of people who now owe more on their property than they are worth, a vehicle repo market that is exploding, and consumer dent that is at record highs.
If you can get out of debt, do it now. Start cutting all non-essential expenses, and use that money to pay down your debt. During an economic collapse, the likelihood of losing your home to debt collectors is a very real prospect.
Start an Emergency Fund: Just like all areas of preparedness, there are steps you can take to insulate yourself from problems. Having an emergency fund is one way to prepare for financial troubles. It will give you a bit of a cushion during hard times, and can provide you with a fund to buy last minute supplies once things start to go bad.
Always have Cash on Hand: Once things start to go bad, there is a very real possibility that the banks may freeze or seize your accounts. Should there be a run on the banks; people are going to be desperate to get their hands on some cash. Even during a total economic collapse, paper currency will still play a major role in how people buy and sell during the initial phases of the crisis – especially if a bank holiday is declared.
Start Prepping for Problems NOW.
Now is the time to really start taking a serious look at your overall level of preparedness. The economy has been teetering on the edge of collapse for quite some time, throw in inflation that has almost doubled the price of staple goods and the growing social unrest that’s sweeping the country and you have yourself a real recipe for disaster.
Put together an emergency kit that includes extra food & water, clothing, a portable shelter (tents, tarps, sleeping bags.), and a way to defend yourself.
Think about what things are unique to your situation; items like medications, or supplies that you would be hard pressed to live without, should be stockpiled in preparation for economic troubles.
For more information on prepping, check out our article on the top ten prepping tips for every SHTF situation. Every one of those tips can help prepare you to deal with an economic crisis.
Start stocking up on Survival Supplies.
During an economic collapse, supply chain disruptions and shortages of essential supplies are possible. Therefore, it is essential to stockpile some essential supplies to tide you over during the crisis. Now is the time to buy the things you need! I’m not talking about T.Vs or IPads; but instead, long-term supplies that you will need in order to survive in the future.
Start stockpiling food and long-term consumables. During any type of crisis, food, water and long-term consumables are going to be worth their weight in gold. During an economic collapse, you will likely see major supply chain shortages and problems, making these types of supplies one of your most important pre-collapse considerations.
Put together a Bug Out Bag: Should this country face an economic collapse, chances are pretty good it will be followed by riots, violence and something much uglier than the initial collapse of the economy. You should have a Bugout bag filled with everything you need to survive a prolonged emergency situation.
Keep a good supply of First-Aid & Medical Supplies on Hand. Medical and personal hygiene supplies are going to be hard to come by when things go bad. Make sure you have everything you need to deal with medical emergencies.
Some of the critical supplies you should consider stockpiling include food, water, medicine, and toiletries. You should also have a backup power source, such as a generator or solar panels, in case of power outages and infrastructure breakdowns.
Grocery Options that ship right to your Home:
Amazon Fresh
Bulk Emergency Foods
Amazon Grocery
Pay Off Debt
One of the biggest challenges during an economic collapse is debt. High levels of debt can be a significant burden during a financial crisis, especially if you lose your source of income.
Therefore, paying off any high-interest debt before a financial crisis hits is essential. This will help reduce your monthly expenses and free up money you can use for other essential things.
If you have a mortgage, it may be wise to consider refinancing to a fixed-rate mortgage, which can provide some stability during the crisis.
Start Stocking up on Survival Knowledge.
Even more important than supplies, is survival knowledge. Knowledge is the key to your survival, and now is the time to get some. During any kind of disaster, including an economic collapse, knowledge is going to be your most powerful ally.
During a crisis, the skills that are in demand may change, and having a wide range of skills can increase your chances of finding employment or starting a new business. Some valuable skills to learn are gardening, carpentry, welding, and plumbing. These skills can help you make repairs or grow your food, saving you money and keeping you self-sufficient during a crisis.
Additionally, learning new skills can also increase your current earning potential, which can help you build your emergency savings or invest in assets that will hold value during a crisis.
Start reading books on survival and start collecting information on how to live a more self-reliant lifestyle.
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Start doing your own Research. I don’t rely on government spun stories, or skillfully crafted press releases; I do my own research and you should too!
Take a serious look at your Self-Defense.
One of the biggest threats you’re going to face during an economic crisis is the threat posed by people. The social unrest and riots we’ve witnessed over the last couple of years are going to pale in comparison to what we’ll see during a full-scale economic collapse.
Take a serious look at gun ownership, and learn everything you can about self-defense. When things go bad, you are going to need a way to protect yourself and those you love.
Watch for signs of social unrest, and stay alert to what’s going on in your neighborhood and throughout the world.
During an economic collapse, problems like home invasions and burglaries are going to become a real problem. Start looking into ways to strengthen your home’s security.
Preparing for an economic collapse can be challenging, but it is essential in today’s uncertain world. By having a plan, diversifying your investments, stockpiling essential supplies, learning new skills, and paying off debt, you can increase your chances of surviving and thriving during a financial crisis.
An economic collapse is a very real threat, one that has far-reaching consequences that you must take seriously. If you haven’t put together a game plan, what are you waiting for?
While nobody here is making any specific predictions, and I certainly can’t tell you that it’s going to happen on this date, in this year; I can tell you that the possibility is very real, and the reality of the situation is our politicians and leaders continue to put policies in place that ensure some very real future problems.
According to georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov– The great struggles of the twentieth century between liberty and totalitarianism ended with a decisive victory for the forces of freedom—and a single sustainable model for national success: freedom, democracy, and free enterprise. In the twenty-first century, only nations that share a commitment to protecting basic human rights and guaranteeing political and economic freedom will be able to unleash the potential of their people and assure their future prosperity. People everywhere want to be able to speak freely; choose who will govern them; worship as they please; educate their children—male and female; own property; and enjoy the benefits of their labor. These values of freedom are right and true for every person, in every society—and the duty of protecting these values against their enemies is the common calling of freedom-loving people across the globe and across the ages.
The Surprising Link Between National Security Courses, Counter Terrorism Training And The Economy
When discussing matters of national security, the economy is hardly ever a topic which is raised, except to say that the cost of defending our country is too high.
With billions of dollars a year spent on branches of the government which are responsible for the safety of every American, defense and national security are definitely huge portions of the country’s yearly budget.
However, it appears as if that money is indeed being spent wisely. Of course there are areas of the Department of Defense and other agencies which have some superfluous spending, but when one examines the overall spending on homeland security, we’re still coming out on top. A study conducted by Steven Weber and John Zysman out of the University of California, Berkeley, examined the economic impact of security treaties in Europe. What they found is that proactively protecting the United States is actually less expensive than dealing with prolonged security concerns. In other words, it’s cheaper to fix a problem before it becomes a problem, rather than trying to fix a leak in a dam.
With this piece of revealing information in hand, it is clear that the United States must ensure that it continues to be ahead of the game when it comes to defending the homeland. A pivotal piece of this puzzle is the training of new individuals who can become part of this solution. There must be an open stream of funds available for those who wish to peruse national security courses and/or counter terrorism training. Those students, the next generation of America’s defenders, will herald the way, not only for continual safety of the homeland, but economic stability as well. To this point, the United States military has done a very good job at protecting the continental United States from attack. With the number of enemies worldwide, the number of attempts and the amount of animosity towards the U.S. in the world, having the events of September 11th as the only major glaring failure is remarkable to say the least.
A continued and sustained monetary effort to support national security courses and counter terrorism training is one of the main keys to success of national security going forward into the future. America has always had a strong educational lineage and so it is no surprise that when it comes to teaching national security courses and counter terrorism training, there are numerous institutions which excel at this task. In addition to the merely the financial support offered by the government, more of the reputable academic institutions need to branch out into this specific area of study, bolstering their faculty with time-tested and experienced individuals whose expertise can be passed to the newest generation. Doing so, even though it will take an initial financial investment, will prove to make the nation safer and save money in the long-term. Very few things in life are truly considered a, “win-win” situation, but when it comes to the investment in our national security, there are only benefits to be found.
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We can see the signs of a coming economic collapse, but that does us no good whatsoever if we fail to act. No, we can’t prevent what is coming, but we can certainly prepare to minimize the pain when it all comes down.
When the government debt is no longer payable and the government checks can’t be covered or the money printing to make it all keep going causes hyperinflation, there will be a lot of civil unrest. Unhappy people who either aren’t getting their government checks or people who are unhappy that their government checks won’t go far enough as 5% becomes the monthly inflation rate instead of the annual inflation rate.
So if we have the benefit of foresight and we see it coming, just what can we do to survive when it all comes down? Let’s take a look at three specific things you can to do survive the riots and looting that will make the streets a very dangerous place to be when the economic collapse happens.
Be able to stay home
The safest place during a riot is in your home. Especially if you have taken measures to ‘fortify’ your home and make is safer, and if you have some means of self-defense, you won’t want to be anywhere else when there is civil unrest.
However, when an economic collapse happens, there are always reasons to be tempted to brave the danger outside – and it is almost always making a run to the store for supplies.
If you have had the wisdom to prepare, you will have 6 to 8 weeks’ worth of non-perishable items in your pantry to give you the insurance policy of being safe in your home.
Keep a low profile
If you haven’t been telling anyone and everyone about your predictions of economic collapse and how you are preparing by stockpiling food, then you are much better off. While you certainly do want to help others in need, you don’t want to have every neighbor on the block knocking down your door asking for a handout when things go south.
The less said, the better off you will be in your attempts to keep a low profile. Looters and burglars who decide that they will help themselves to the supplies of others will not have you on their radar if you have kept a low profile, since word gets around quickly these days with Facebook.
Be able to hunker down anywhere
Just as with my first point, having the luxury of staying in the safety of your home when there is civil unrest, you want to have the luxury of not having to risk taking to the streets to get home if things go south when you are at work.
Since we never know when something like this will happen and how it will unfold, having an emergency preparedness kit in your car is critical. We spend a lot of time away from home, and having some supplies with us only makes sense if we want to have the best chance possible of making it through periods of civil unrest unscathed.
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Those who understand the heinous nature of the United Nation as well as their failed nature as a so-called “peacekeeping” force, should understandably be concerned with the impending presence of UN soldiers on the streets of Chicago.
Extreme gun violence is listed as the primary reason why. This may be the one truthful aspect of this planned UN occupation of an American city. Eventually, the UN is going after the guns of all Americans and on this point, history has spoken. Gun confiscation is always followed by genocide.
Watch this video below to find out the great secrets hidden by the government.
Below is an image of a United Nations document regarding gun confiscation. The full text follows the printed image.
“The issue of military grade weaponry in the hands of civilians looms ever larger in the face of the global implementation of 22/Agenda 21 by member nations. In particular, the United States of America has an estimated 500 million weapons in the hands of its civilian population. This is not just a static problem, it is a massive dynamic problem for the process of confiscation as there will be those who refuse to surrender their firearms.
“The conclusion of discussions by the CWCSG led to the adoption of a proposed agenda to begin the process for introducing to member nations a framework by which they can begin codification of national laws to disarm civilians within their borders through a graduated process.
“Within the discussion framework, we have identified several problem areas that must be addressed, they are:
“1. Classification of military grade weapons to be made illegal for possession.
“2. Creation of programs to provide reasonable compensation for voluntary surrender of said arms.
“3. Codification of laws to begin the restricting and strict licensing of concealable firearms.
“4. Codification of laws to begin the restricting and strict licensing of hunting grade firearms.
“5. Codification of laws to restrict the sale of, and possession of ammunition and components to manufacture ammunition.
“6. Finally, codification of laws to completely makes (sic) any and all firearms illegal to own, possess or use outside of military and law enforcement usage.
“7. Creation of a United Nations Police Taskforce with the specific mission of assisting member nations with the collection of weaponry from civilian hands.
“The CWCSG will submit its findings and final recommendations once we have created the codification framework for member nations for a full review by the Office of the Secretary General.”
If one examines the first five steps of the plot, it is easy to ascertain the pattern of gun confiscation that the UN willl attempt to follow. I do not believe that the UN has to completely implement steps 1-5 before moving to enforce steps 6 and 7. Therefore, even though the UN has not completely implemented the first five steps across the country, y have done enough to usher in Steps 6 and 7 in this United Nations disarmament plan. Steps 6 and 7 are listed below:
“6. Finally, codification of laws to completely makes any and all firearms illegal to own, possess or use outside of military and law enforcement usage.
7. Creation of a United Nations Police Taskforce with the specific mission of assisting member nations with the collection of weaponry from civilian hands”.
Connecting the Dots for Gun Confiscation
Even if the the UN document designed to disarm America, listed above, was not genuine (and it is), the following, very public document has been proven to be very authentic.
Under the heading, “Hiding in plain sight”, the United Nations has been advertising for the following position for the past several years:
Posting Title: Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Officer, P4
Job Title Code: DISARMAMENT, DEMOBILIZATION AND REINTEGRATION OFFICER
Department/Office: Department of Peacekeeping Operations
Duty Station: New York
Job Description:A minimum of seven years of progressively responsible experience in disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration or related area. Experience working within peacekeeping, peace-building or development programmes operations is desirable. Experience with small arms control, conflict/post-conflict crisis management, economic recovery is desirable. Experience coordinating multiple partner agencies, funds or programmes is desirable.
There is even more fuel to throw on this raging fire as we consider the fact that, at the behest of former President Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry illegally, and in direct violation to the Constitution of the United States, signed the United Nations Arms Trade Treaty. The UN Arms Trade Treaty contains all 7 provisions listed above in the Disarmament Commission of the United Nations.
We should also be focusing on the military invasion that is about to unfold in this country.
What military invasion, you may ask?
The Soros organizations of Antifa and Move0n.org have stated that President Trump moves to fire Special Prosecutor, Robert Mueller, that this will trigger a massive and fully-planned response. Further, former disgraced Attorney General, Eric Holder, has said that the removal of Mueller would prove to be the bottom line. What is implied in both of these communications is that George Soros organizations plan to initiate violence in the face of any action that Trump may, or may not commit. When Soros’ organizations initiate violence on a wide spread basis, this will provide the UN occupation forces the pretext with regard to gun confiscation.
In the past few articles on this topic, I have published photos of UN forces already on our soil. This is not new. It is just that only now are they publicly making their presence known.
History Speaks Will America Listen?
By definition, there were 19 genocides in the 20th century according to the University of Hawaii Democide Project. Each one was proceded by gun confiscation. In some of the more notable of the events, the UN Peacekeeping forces stood by and watched as a million people in Rwanda were brutally murdered.
What is happening in Chicago is simply the foot in the door technique. It is clear that the UN will eventually be going after all guns and gun confiscation always leads to genocide.
In the final part of this series, it will be made clear that the gun confiscation is simply a means to an end. The final part of this series will examine hte proof that the UN will be running the FEMA camps.
If you want to see what happens when things go south, all you have to do is look at Venezuela: no electricity, no running water, no law, no antibiotics, no painkillers, no anesthetics, no insulin or other important things.
From 1929 to 1941, the United States experienced over a decade of economic hardship, known as The Great Depression. The American people were left hungry and struggling following a steep stock market crash, changes in world trading, government policy changes, failing banks, and the collapse of the money system. Everyday life during this time required grit and survival skills.
Though it might have been before our time, there are still plenty of survival lessons from the Great Depression that can be applied today. After all, you never know where the economy might go. Check out these eight lessons from the Great Depression that you can use to help prepare yourself for the uncertain future.
Stay Prepared With These 8 Prepper Great Depression Tips
1. Grow Your Own Food
World events can cause food production to grind to a halt. During the Great Depression, a time of both natural disaster and sharp economic downturn, individuals grew their own food to avoid going hungry. Community and backyard gardens were a necessity. Many opted to grow, can, dehydrate, pickle, and jar their own produce. This allowed families greater independence and to avoid living on rations alone.
Today, you can prepare by keeping a garden and growing your own vegetables, legumes, and fruits. Stay prepared and self-reliant by growing your own seasonal produce in a traditional backyard garden, a patio garden, or even an indoor garden.
2. Stock Your Pantry
The Dustbowl suddenly dried up rivers, lakes, and groundwater that people depended upon for survival. Crops were destroyed leaving unprepared Americans without a stable food supply.
Today, we know that you can never be too sure about what’s around the corner. Though you can’t anticipate the future, you can prepare for it. Start by stocking your pantry with enough food and water now. Survival food kits are an easy and convenient option that you can slowly accumulate over time.
3. Stay Frugal and Save
One in every four workers was unemployed and short on money during the great depression. If they didn’t have savings, they were dependent upon soup kitchens and the kindness of neighbors and friends. In order to maintain self-reliance, you need to account for uncertainty at all times — that means not taking periods of steady pay for granted.
The first step when prepping for economic downturns is to start saving now. Start by cutting out excessive spending and instead live below your means whenever possible. Pay down your debts on time and avoid excessive spending.
Finally, consider keeping cash on hand at your home in the event you find banks closed — preferably stowed away in an immovable fireproof safe.
4. Invest in Tools and Materials
When everyone else starts bugging out — and prices skyrocket for everyday items — you’ll wish you had stocked up on essential household survival items sooner. Start by investing in the tools and materials you need for day-to-day living and for household maintenance tasks now.
Stay independent of today’s already fragile infrastructure by investing in:
Generators
Solar Power
Water purification systems
Tools
5. Learn to Conserve
In times of economic crisis, goods can become expensive or disappear from the market entirely. The best way to start preparing for a crisis? Learn to practice conserving what you have before disaster strikes. Begin by looking at your everyday habits. Are you careful to switch off the lights when you aren’t in the room? Do you leave the shower running before you get in? Do you drive short distances when you could walk or bike instead? From electricity to water to gasoline, it makes good financial sense to do your best to cut down on unnecessary use now.
As we’ve seen in recent years, single-use items (like toilet paper) can become scarce in times of crisis. Consider other ways you could conserve or reduce costly single-use items in your day-to-day life. For example, start using rags or reusable towels in place of paper towels. Reach for cloth napkins instead of paper. Dine with durable metal cutlery and traditional plates instead of disposable options. Getting out of the single-use-item habit can help keep you prepared for when a crisis strikes — and save you cash in the meantime.
6. Learn to Repurpose
Ever heard the saying, “One man’s trash is another man’s treasure?” The Great Depression taught Americans the importance of repurposing everything. Smart folks during the Great Depression knew how to make use of what they had, whether it be reusing old storage containers, silverware, toothbrushes, or worn tires. Embrace a DIY attitude and get creative with things you might normally discard.
Easy ways to get started include:
Using old ratty T-shirts to clean the windows
Washing and reusing aluminum foil
Using old silverware or toothbrushes as plant markers
Saving cardboard and packaging for note taking
Using kitchen scraps to create hashes, soups, or casseroles
7. Purchase Wisely
In good economic times, money flows easily. When the economy is on the upswing you may not be too stressed over needing to replace a pair of cheap shoes or a flimsy chair bought at a big box store. However, when times are tough, you’ll be glad to know you have quality clothes and goods you can rely upon.
During the Great Depression, folks wore clothes until they were threadbare and used items for the complete duration of their lifecycle. For things you wear or use every day, it’s better to make the choice to opt for quality items that can endure — and can be repaired.
8. Sharpen Your Skills
Nowadays, most folks have a single specialized area of expertise. However, in the era of the Great Depression, you had to have a “do it yourself” mindset and the ability to take on an assortment of challenges. In order to be prepared for a recession, or any crisis, you should spend time gaining knowledge.
When funds are tight, there are plenty of things you’ll need to be able to do by yourself — changing your oil, mending clothing, and even making home repairs.
Stay self-reliant by learning the basics of:
Sewing
Electronics repair
Car maintenance
Carpentry
First aid and basic home medicine
Gardening
Not only can these skills help you out in a crisis situation, but they could also help you find work in even the toughest of economic conditions.
If you have any dissatisfaction with my content, you can tell me here and I will fix the problem, because I care about every reader and even more so about your opinion!
There are so many places to live when doomsday approaches us, and they all offer their fair share of resources that can be crucial to our survival. So where should you go?
Where should you not go? When should you go? Let’s talk about everything you need to know when deciding where you’ll retreat to when doomsday approaches us.
Where are the best places to live when SHTF?
There are not only great locations all around the world fit for doomsday preppers but also great spaces within the United States.
Here we’ve listed some international locations as well as some locations within the United States to look into when deciding where you should begin prepping.
International Locations For Doomsday:
Antarctica: unlikely to be affected by war, avoid if climate change becomes increasingly worse.
The Isle Of Lewis, North Atlantic Ocean: a plethora of natural resources, isolated area, unlikely to be invaded.
Tierra Del Fuego, South America: unlikely to be hit by nuclear fallout, unlikely to be invaded.
Yukon, Canada: hunting, trapping, river commute, hard winters.
United States Locations For Doomsday:
The Dakotas: farming, largest prepping communities, has one of the largest bunkers in the world.
Montana: low population, known as a survivalist state, however, is in a shot of a nearby supervolcano located in the Wyoming area of Yellowstone National Park.
Washington: average population, good water quality, and area for cultivation. Avoid the Seattle area.
Idaho: low population, low levels of pollution, gun-friendly.
Why be in these places when SHTF?
It’s ideal to be in places that are not only safe and rural but also can provide you with essentials you might need, such as clean water, good hunting and trapping, and a good cultivation rate.
These places are also ideal for avoiding militia and actual military bases that might pose a threat to you.
When should you try to get to these places when things go south?
Many people will pre-plan, and while it’s good to get to these places as soon as possible, states like Montana already have an actual market perfect for doomsday prepping.
At the same time, those people who are or have already created a safe space for doomsday prefer to be anonymous and remain in unknown locations.
If you do not want to prepare in advance or cannot afford to, it’s important to have at least a stash of things to use for survival on hand that you can take with you want to commute to the place you want to go.
These include tents, sustainable foods that will last you long periods of time, fire starts, and so much more.
What places should you avoid?
While there are many great places out there, there are also places you should avoid. These places all have characteristics that we should keep in mind.
Characteristics include areas with extreme populations or civilizations—for example, bigger cities such as New York, Los Angeles, and Houston are all places you will definitely want to avoid.
It would be best if you also avoided places where it may be hard to begin cultivation for a food source, such as dry areas that are known to have droughts in some areas such as California, Nevada, or Arizona.
Unless you have somehow configured how to have a working air conditioner at your prepper location – surely you’ll want to avoid these places anyways.
Final thoughts on where to go when SHTF
You will find great places to retreat to not just within the United States but around the world. These include locations such as Montana or Antarctica.
Of course, every location has its own perks and setbacks, which is why it’s important to understand what the land you are retreating to can offer.
Getting to these places in time can be crucial, and it’s important to know how serious things are when commuting to these rural areas.
Avoid places with mass populations and civilizations, as well as locations that have military bases, especially when traveling to your desired location.
If you have any dissatisfaction with my content, you can tell me here and I will fix the problem, because I care about every reader and even more so about your opinion!
Recent world crises and the resultant weakening of the global economy has left many fearing the worst. There is talk of a global recession, or worse yet, a complete collapse of the economy.
While it is impossible to say whether such a severe economic downturn is upon us, understanding how to survive a potential economic collapse (whether now or in the future) could save you and your family when the times get tough.
WHAT IS AN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE?
An economic collapse is defined as a severe breakdown of the economy at a national, regional, or territorial level. It is a broad term used to describe bad economic conditions that are not part of the ordinary business cycle of expansion and contraction.
An economic collapse usually signals the start of a significant economic contraction, recession, or depression, which can last months or even many years.
WHAT CAUSES AN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE?
There are various events and circumstances that can trigger an economic collapse, which makes it difficult to attribute it to a single cause. An economic collapse can happen suddenly as a result of an unexpected crisis such as the onset of a war, natural disaster, political unrest, and various other events.
It can also be the culmination of a series of events or ongoing circumstances which signal a weakening and fragility of the economy.
WHAT ARE THE RESULTS OF AN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE?
The results of an economic collapse are equally difficult to predict, as the ripple effects of a severe economic downturn are widespread and impossible to accurately track. Some general and obvious results of an economic collapse are:
A rise in job loss and unemployment.
Loss of value of investment markets which results in the average investor losing significant value in their portfolio.
Slowing of production, and therefore less new innovation, fewer startups, and so forth.
A potential hyperinflationary environment in extreme cases where the cost of basic items increases dramatically.
An increase in poverty which can also lead to crime, civil unrest, and various other social issues.
Widespread business failures leading to shutting down of companies and laying off of staff.
HOW TO PREPARE FOR AN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
Preparation is key in order to successfully survive an economic collapse. It is important to not become too complacent when the good times are rolling, as you never know when the situation may change for the worse.
Follow these practical guidelines to ensure you are well prepared :
1. KEEP AN EMERGENCY FUND
Having liquid cash safely deposited in a savings account with your bank can be a lifesaver in times of economic crisis. First of it all, it will retain its value while market linked assets such as equities deteriorate.
Secondly, it will provide you with the best liquidity so that you can quickly access your money during a time of extreme need. It is recommended to keep at least 3 – 6 months’ worth of expenses in an emergency fund.
2. BECOME DEBT FREE
The additional pressure of carrying debt if there is an economic collapse can put you in an extremely difficult situation. You should start working towards becoming debt free today.
This will reduce your monthly expenditure and will keep you from landing up in a precarious position should you lose your job in the future. Begin by paying off your highest interest debt such as credit cards and other short-term loans, and then move onto lower interest debts such as house mortgages.
3. CREATE ADDITIONAL INCOME SOURCES
The risk of losing your primary job is elevated during an economic recession or collapse. You can mitigate the negative consequences of this by creating additional sources of income now before the bad times are afoot.
We live in an age of boundless opportunities to make money on the side remotely. You can start your own web business or do freelance consulting work.
Even if you have a great job, it is well worth diversifying your income sources and establishing other ways to sustain yourself. Even a few hundred dollars a month can make a big difference in a time of need.
4. REDUCE UNNECESSARY SPENDING
Most people tend to spend recklessly when times are good and then suddenly try to adjust when there is a downturn or they lose their job. This is a big mistake for two reasons:
Firstly, if you make overspending a habit in your regular life, it becomes extremely difficult to adjust your spending habits when you need to do so. If you practice living with less even during the good times, it will be much easier during a financial squeeze.
Secondly, wasting unnecessary money on a regular basis means you have less to put into savings each month. We spoke about the importance of having an emergency fund, and living off less now can help you keep that fund growing for when the rainy day comes.
5. MAINTAIN A DIVERSIFIED INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
Entire markets and industries can deteriorate during an economic collapse, while others might be more protected. Maintaining a diversified investment portfolio will ensure that you are not overexposed to one specific asset class, sector of the economy, or graphical region.
While your overall asset value might still decline significantly, you will be more protected from the risk of complete financial ruin if you keep your eggs in different baskets.
6. STOCKPILE FOOD AND OTHER SUPPLIES
During severe economic collapses, like the one experienced by Venezuela in current times, or the Great Depression of the 1930s, even things like basic food and other supplies can be in shortage.
Even if supplies are available, a hyperinflationary environment can make basic necessities completely unaffordable. It is always a good idea to keep a stockpile of food and other essential supplies (e.g., medicines, toiletries, paper supplies, tools, etc.) that can last you more than a year in tough times. This may also protect you from other crises such as natural disasters, war, etc.
One step further is to learn to grow your own food. If you have a small garden in which you could plant a few crops, start learning how to prepare the soil and grow some basic fruit and vegetables. Not only will it make you less reliant on a potentially failing economic system, but will be an extremely rewarding process too.
7. LEARN BASIC SKILLS
Basic DIY skills are invaluable during an economic crisis. Instead of paying someone to repair your car or fix your house, you can do it yourself for free. You could even earn some additional income by providing these services to others. Examples of basic skills that can save you money and bring great fulfilment during difficult times include things like:
Baking bread and making other foot items from scratch (e.g., pickles, jams, fermented vegetables, yoghurt, etc.)
Growing your own vegetables and herbs
Sewing
First aid and caring for a sick child
Mechanic work such as fixing cars, motorbikes, bicycles, etc.
Building and repairing household items such as furniture and shelves
Basic electrical and plumbing work
8. ESTABLISH STRONG CONNECTIONS
One of your most valuable resources are the people who are close to you. When times are difficult, it is important to work together with close friends and family to overcome the challenges.
You will have a much better chance of making it through compared to trying to tough it out alone. Start building strong relationships with those who are close to you, like neighbours, friends, and family. Having the mutual understanding that you can depend on each other in difficult times is a great comfort.
You can also practice the habit of mutual exchange (i.e., bartering), where you offer your skills in exchange for something that the other can give. This can help you circumvent the traditional economy and help you move more towards the “sharing economy”. This also reminds us of the importance of learning as many basic skills as possible, so that you may help others in need and receive their support in kind.
HOW TO SURVIVE DURING AN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
Hopefully you will be well prepared to deal with an economic collapse when it comes having followed the above steps. However, it is impossible to perfectly predict how a collapse in the economy will play out, and you will need to deal with the situation that is presented to you at the time. Here are a few additional steps you may need to take when you are actually faced with an economic collapse:
1. DISCUSS THE SITUATION WITH YOUR HOUSEHOLD
The very first thing you should do is sit down with the members of your household and discuss the situation with them. Go over your finances together and work together to come up with a plan of how you will navigate these difficult times together.
It is important that you are all on the same page, but also to know that everyone has their own approach and attitude to dealing with money. How you resolve these differences and work together will have a big impact on your ability to deal with the challenging times, and strengthen your relationships in the process.
2. FURTHER REDUCE EXPENSES AS NEEDED
In preparation for a recession, you would have practiced living off less. When you are faced with an actual economic collapse, you may have to further adjust your spending habits to be able to cover your monthly expenses. In most cases, it is quite possible to maintain a good quality of life while cutting out unnecessary expenditures. Start by cutting out spending on all the things which are not necessary for you to live on, and finding ways to reduce the costs of the things you do need. Some ways that you may be able to reduce your spending include:
Cut out discretionary spending (i.e., stop buying things you can do without) like luxury items, new clothes that you don’t need, new gadgets, etc.)
Reduce transportation costs by carpooling, using public transport, walking or cycling, etc.
Reduce housing costs by moving to a cheaper area, subletting out part of your house, or even moving in with family until your financial situation improves.
Reduce food costs by cooking at home instead of going out to eat. Also refrain from buying too many luxury food items that you don’t really need and instead buy simple, healthy food.
3. GET MUTUAL SUPPORT FROM FRIENDS AND FAMILY
We spoke about the importance of building strong relationships when preparing for an economic collapse. Well, here is the time to lean on the solid bonds you have created by not being afraid to ask for support. You should also help and share your skills and resources with others who are in need.
4. PROTECT YOUR HOME AND FAMILY
Extreme economic collapses and recessions can lead to social degradation such as more violent crime, petty theft, scams, and so on. This has been clearly demonstrated in Venezuela and is one of the reasons why so many citizens have fled the country. You may need to take action to safeguard your home and protect your family from criminals and other dangers during a severe recession.
5. KEEP EARNING
If at all possible, make sure to keep the money flowing in. If you have a job, go the extra mile to prove that you are a valuable employee. You should be seen as the last person to be laid off in your employer’s eyes.
In the meantime, keep networking and working on generating alternative income streams so that you are not left stranded without any income if your employer does need to shut down.
6. DON’T STOP ENJOYING LIFE
Finally, and most importantly, don’t allow yourself to be ruled by fear and sadness. There is no reason to stop enjoying and appreciating life just because you are faced with economic difficulties.
Be grateful for the things you do still have and keep having fun in the ways you can with those you hold dear. You should try to see the situation as a challenge on your creativity and flexibility, and encourage friends and family to come up with inventive ways to have fun without spending money all the time.
CONCLUSION
Of all the disasters which can face a society, an economic collapse is one of the most challenging to deal with. Due to its nebulous nature and widespread impacts, it is very difficult to escape its effects. Being adequately prepared to deal with a sever economic downturn before it arises, and knowing how to respond when you are faced with it, is vital in order to make it through intact.
You will probably have to accept that you will be impacted one way or another, but the severity can be greatly reduced with the right approach. Most important of all is to continue living with joy and hope in the midst of the difficult times, and not get sucked into needless fear and anxiety.
If you have any dissatisfaction with my content, you can tell me here and I will fix the problem, because I care about every reader and even more so about your opinion!
World population is projected to reach 9–11 billion by 2050, raising concerns about food system security and sustainability. Modeling food systems are often a way to understand current and future dynamics. The most common model, first articulated by Malthus (Malthusian), shows population growth as an exponential function and food production as a linear function, concluding that human carrying capacity will be reached leading to mass starvation. Another prominent model was introduced by Boserup (Boserupian), which explains increases in food production as a function of population growth.
Methodology
Here, we explore which food systems dynamics exist at equilibrium and after perturbation. The model introduced explores food availability in an isolated village and then in a line of villages. The isolated village model includes three key parameters: maximum calorie production (a), food production resilience (b), and minimum calorie requirement per person (c). The multiple village model adds an additional parameter for trade.
Results
Isolated village populations are more resilient to famine than Malthusian theory predicts, suggesting that Malthus’ premise may be inaccurate. Predictably, across multiple villages increasing access and production reduce famine. However, under certain conditions large amounts of transport can lead to antagonist relationships leading to rapid changes in population.
Conclusion
Food systems under both production and access scenarios proved to be resilient to small perturbations, requiring a large catastrophe to induce mortality; this appeared to discount the Malthusian model. This model can create dynamics where different modes of famine relief apply, but here we see that a balanced approach of both access and production appears to be the most resilient to famine.
Background
Understanding the limitations of food systems that support human population growth has profound implications for natural resource management and agricultural productivity. Food security means the availability of sufficient food at all times for all people in order to ensure an active and healthy life, which is a challenge to humanity. It is broadly accepted that food security is a human right (Universal Declaration of Human rights article 25), yet food security is still a major problem worldwide. Food security is maintained when food systems are resilient (responsive to perturbations) to increases in population in addition to instability in production caused by natural disasters (e.g., floods, droughts), political strife, disruptions to transportation/distribution networks, lack of storage capacity, economic stress, and increasingly climate change. These challenges can work individually or interact, which may facilitate new interactions that may create new famines with different intensities.
Despite the consensus that famine is caused by complex local interactions, it is often simplified into Neo-Malthusian paradigm; or the Boserupian paradigm. The Malthusian paradigm is based on understanding human carrying capacity of environments. Therefore, once the population has exceeded the food production, catastrophic famine will ensue. The Boseruprian model looks at increasing population as a catalyst for agricultural intensification leading to increased productivity, however this perspective is less dominant in agricultural circles. A major debate in development has been on the best way to create food security, either neoliberal forms of governance (e.g., market integration) or food sovereignty approaches (e.g., agroecological/low-input mixed land use high human labor). Neo-Malthusian doctrine gains popularity every generation; it was most famously discussed in the 1960s and 1970s. These solutions are often more simply stated as: an ‘access’ paradigm; or a ‘production’ paradigm. The access paradigm suggests that we simply lack the appropriate infrastructure and political will to provide adequate food. The production paradigm suggests that we lack the technological capacity to produce enough food for everyone or that this technology has not diffused to those who need it. The access and production viewpoints have often been seen as antagonistic toward each other, with proponents of the different paradigms offering drastically different development strategies to alleviate famine. These viewpoints necessarily oversimplify the issue, allowing for an obfuscation of local dynamics, but make policy recommendations easier. These local dynamics include the social structure of communities that can have dramatic impacts on the amount of cooperation or antagonism within a community during a famine. This implies that there is wide parameter space when communities experience famine, both for recovery and for catastrophic failure.
Fig. 1
Recently, Neo-Malthusian doctrine has become common with worldwide population projected to increase 9–11 billion by 2050 and subsequent concerns about food security. In an effort to understand the cyclical interest in Malthusian doctrine, there has been an effort to understand stresses to historic agriculture systems and retrospectively understand the causes of specific famine events. The definition of famine has continuously evolved and includes mortality due to war, starvation, malnutrition, and disease under food stress. Defining famine continues to be a challenge as more information is available for human systems including: nutrition information; hungry season vs. crop failure; poverty; political instability; disease related to malnutrition; migration-related disasters; trade imbalances; natural disasters ; food hording ; and social stratification. Issues of attribution of the factors that cause lethal famine, are still up for debate, due to all starvation rarely being the cause of death reported on death certificates. Here, we aim to understand the dynamics of famine in a single location as well the dynamics of how famine events propagate through space and time through a simple mathematical model. This model is used to compare different paradigms of famine and famine recovery through simulation with simulation results being compared to historic famine events to assess reliability.
Materials and methods
Baseline village that is isolated and not in contact with other villages
Conceptualization of model
We approach this problem using a discrete model where the time steps can naturally be defined as harvest seasons. The model includes two variables: Pn and En. Pn represents the working human population at the nthℎ season while En represents the calories of excess food available at nthℎ season. Because the village is isolated, all of the food is locally produced and there is neither immigration to the village nor emigration from the village; hence any fluctuations in human population is exclusively due to death. We restrict our study to short periods of time, 0–5 years to see the immediate effects of famine upon a population. With this restriction, the new births will not provide meaningful impact on the food production as the children have not matured to a working age. Additionally, after natural disasters there is frequently increased fertility after the disaster that helps population recover.
The village can be thought of as a subsistence village, which can be broadly defined as agriculture where the majority of the output is consumed by the village rather than marketed for profit. In our first simulations, we assume the village is isolated, implying that there is no importing or exporting of food. Thus, all the food grown locally is the only food available for consumption. When we later consider multiple villages, we will relax this assumption and allow for importing and exporting of food between neighboring villages. Within this village there is no formal social structure, the model looks at the number of people needed to produce and maintain a population, rather than how those calories are distributed. In essence, this can be conceptualized as a village with a single social class, the working class.
The model also makes the assumption that production technology remains stable, i.e., advances in food production are negligible over the duration of the simulation. Though a technological breakthrough may improve quality of life for the villagers especially during a famine, the investment of labor and capital for a technological advancement may not be feasible for the current economical model of a village; it is simply easier to keep the current production technology and or methods. This phenomenon is what Boserup referred to as “technical inertia”. It is also plausible that a production system can become so specialized that it cannot adapt in response to such drastic perturbations as evidenced by the Rust Belt in the 1970s.
In each modeled village we consider a fixed, finite amount of land available for production. Using Malthus’ theory of diminishing marginal product, this will imply that the production system will eventually reach a plateau despite increasing input resources such as workers or seeds.
Determination of the excess of food available in the next season
We define the excess food to be the calories available after the individuals of a population have consumed their minimal calories needed per season. Therefore, excess food is the total calories produced minus the calories consumed. Assuming each individual consumes an average of c calories per season, we can say the total consumption by the entire population Pn at the nthℎ season is cPn.
The number of calories produced in a season depends on factors such as the number of workers available, the supply of seeds, and agricultural land availability. According to the economic concept of diminishing marginal product (DMP), the production function should eventually plateau, or approach a maximum, as one of these resources increases with the other resources fixed. In this model, the total amount of food produced is represented by a product of the availability of the workers and the supply of seeds available in a fixed area of land.
For the calories of food due to workers, we consider the function, p(Pn)=aPn1+bPn()=1, which increases monotonically from 0 and exhibits the desired plateau behavior as the number of people increases. The value ab represents the maximum production capacity of calories by the people and 1b1 represents the characteristic number of workers needed to saturate the production function.
To factor the supply of seeds into our production function, we desire a function that increases production as more seeds are available up to a certain maximum to satisfy the concept of DMP. Additionally, the function should always have a supply of seeds available as during times of shortage people are reluctant to use their entire supply of seeds. Assuming that seeds are proportional to the excess food supply, we propose the function s(En)=(1+tanh(fEn))()=(1+tanh()) to satisfy both of these conditions, where f is a positive constant that models how resilient the systems is to fluctuations in food supply. Greater values of f correspond to a more sensitive system while lesser values of f correspond to a highly resilient system. This functional form satisfies the DMP condition because it increases monotonically as seeds are more available (or as En increases) until an upperbound of 2, and a supply of seeds is always available as it approaches but never equals 0 during a food shortage (or as En becomes more negative).
By multiplying p(Pn)() and s(En)(), we obtain the total calorie production in the next season, aPn1+bPn(1+tanh(fEn))1+(1+tanh()) By subtracting the calories consumed in the previous season, we obtain the excess calories available in the next season: En+1=aPn1+bPn(1+tanh(fEn))−cPn+1=1+(1+tanh())− (Table 1).Table 1 Model parameters and the interpretation of their values. Parameters are constants with modifiable values that characterize a specific region’s food production
Determination of the human population in the next season
We assume the human population will not change if there is an excess of food (En>0>0) and will decrease if there is a shortage of food (En<0<0). Assuming the number of deaths is proportional to the shortage of food at a rate of d>0>0 deaths per calorie deficiency, we have
Pn+1={PnPn+dEnEn>0,En≤0.+1={>0,+≤0.
(1)
In summary, the model consists of the following system of difference equations:
In order to ease the analysis of the model, we reduce the number of parameters by non-dimensionalizing the model equations. We introduce non-dimensional variables Pn¯¯¯¯¯¯=bP¯= and En¯¯¯¯¯¯=bdEn¯= and let a¯¯¯=ad¯=, b¯¯=fbd¯=, and c¯¯=cd¯=. After all of these substitutions, we have the following non-dimensional model:
For the rest of this paper, we will drop the bar notation and the reader may assume that any reference to the model variables and its parameters are the non-dimensional variables and parameters as listed in Table 2. The non-dimensional parameter a can be interpreted as the ratio between the amount of calories produced by each person and the deficiency in calories leading to the death of a person. The non-dimensional parameter b is the typical surplus or shortage of food in the model, measured in terms of the food changes needed to induce significant increases or decreases in the saved seeds. It can be interpreted as a measure of sensitivity: low values of b mean that changes in food supply have minimal effect on the food production, which would be governed predominantly by the number of people in that case. If the value of b is high, it means that food production is governed not only by the number of people, but also by any food surplus or shortage in the past. The non-dimensional parameter c is similar to a, except that c is a measure of consumption instead of production by each person. The advantage of presenting non-dimensional population is that any subsequent changes can be interpreted as a proportion of the initial population, regardless of the specific numbers that may differ depending on the particular application of interest.Table 2 Model parameters with dimensions removed and their interpretation on how they affect the model
Equilibria of model
Equilibria are tuples, (P∗,E∗)(∗,∗), where neither P∗∗ nor E∗∗ change from one season to the next. The trivial solution for P∗∗ and E∗∗ is when there are neither people nor food, (0, 0). Non-trivial solutions solve the following equation:
E∗=aP∗1+P∗(1+tanh(bE∗))−cP∗.∗=∗1+∗(1+tanh(∗))−∗.
(4)
Observe that the values of a, b, and c affect the equilibrium values of the equation. Given set values for a, b, and c, one can use standard root-finding schemes to numerically solve for the non-trivial solutions (P∗,E∗)(∗,∗).
After finding the equilibrium for a given set of parameters a, b, and c, we simulate the model using initial values (P0,E0)(0,0) chosen from evenly spaced grid of points. We then record which points return to a non-trivial equilibrium and which return to the trivial equilibrium.
When famine strikes a village it can either trade or attack a neighboring village to reach a stable amount of food for its population
Justification for trade parameters
To study the effect of food transport between neighboring villages, we extend the isolated village model to incorporate a line of equally spaced villages. The food produced and the human population at each village are assumed to evolve in the same way as in the isolated model, except that we now allow food (but not humans) to move between adjacent villages. The only modification we need is in the expression for the excess food given in Eq. 2, where we add or subtract any transported food accordingly. Here, we consider a second-order central-difference scheme of a simple diffusive process, such that the excess food before trade Ei at the ithℎ village is adjusted by the net gain/loss of calories from/to its neighboring villages:
k[Ei−1−2Ei+Ei+1],[−1−2++1],
(5)
where k is a positive parameter measuring the rate of food transfer between adjacent villages. A large or small k, respectively, represents an infrastructure supporting efficient or poor trade. The model allows a village having more/less excess food than its adjacent villages to lose/gain through trade.
Now the excess food produced locally by the food system, Ei,,, and the human population, Pi,n,, at the ithℎ village will rely on the food after transfer Eneti,n, at the nthℎ time step.
To predict the global and long-term effect of a sudden and local famine event, we conducted a series of simulations as follows. Before famine strikes, the villages are assumed to have the same excess food and population values, which are obtained from equilibria in the isolated model. At the first time step, we introduce a decline in excess food at one village located at the origin. By reflective symmetry at the origin, all villages to the left are expected to behave in the same way as the villages to the right, so we only monitor the villages to one side. The resultant changes in excess food and human population along the line of villages were simulated over time. We terminated the simulation either when a village population went extinct or when a village sufficiently far away experienced the effect of famine at the origin.
Using the multiple village model, we simulate two competing paradigms for preventing famine, the production and access paradigm (see introduction). In each paradigm, the villages are all assumed to have the same initial population. To characterize the production paradigm, each individual has more resilient food production systems (lower b parameter), but inefficient food transportation infrastructure (lower k parameter). In contrast, villages in the access paradigm have unstable food production systems, but efficient food transportation to alleviate these individual deficiencies.
Results and discussion
Individual subsistence village with stable farming technology
We are exploring a specifically defined subsistence village with three parameters used to explore famine in an isolated village: maximum production of food (a), food production resilience due to seeds (b), and minimum calorie requirement per person (c). There are two qualitatively different cases depending on the three parameters: if b(a−c)≤1(−)≤1, then the village is famine resistant (Fig. 2a), however if b(a−c)>1(−)>1 then the village is famine susceptible (Fig. 2c). In the famine-resistant case, there was a large set of initial conditions where an isolated village was resilient to famine, implying that, while famine could continue for multiple seasons, populations could recover back to a stable state thus regaining equilibrium (Fig. 2a, c). This large set of initial conditions (shaded in yellow), where recovery from famine is possible, suggests that the system needs to be dramatically perturbed to cause famine. It is important to note that this simulation only takes into account death from starvation. Though famine makes people more susceptible to disease, much of the literature suggests that mortality may not directly result from lack of calories.
Fig. 2
It is possible to identify famines that are quickly resolved and those that persist through time by adjusting the value of the food production resilience due to seed supply, b and keeping all other parameter values constant, drastic differences in the response of the village due to famine were observed (Fig. 3). In this scenario, greater values of b correspond to lesser food production resilience and lower values of b correspond to a greater food production resilience. Though a higher value of b accommodates equilibria for larger population sizes and larger food production, we observe the village suffers both a greater loss of human life and longer recovery period when hit with a famine event at these higher values of b. Due to the contrast in duration of the famines, we classify the famine as chronic for the higher value of b and acute for the lower value of b.
Fig. 3
Multiple villages
A multiple village model was created by simulating different amounts of food transported between villages using the k parameter, with all other parameter values fixed (Fig. 4). Qualitatively there are three different outcomes. When there is insufficient transport between villages, the multiple village model behaves similarly to the isolated village model. We observe that the famine is spatially constrained to the center village (Village0Village0) affected as the population of adjacent villages’ (Village1Village1) remain in equilibrium. Even with relatively little transport between villages, the benefits of trade greatly improve the survival of Village0Village0. Compared to the isolated village model (Fig. 3), Village0Village0 retains 60%60% more of the initial population and recovers from famine about five seasons quicker. When there is a sufficient transportation of food between villages, famine is averted completely, due to the aid of adjacent villages, Village0Village0 recovers from famine within one season, avoiding any deaths due to starvation. However, when there is too much transportation between villages we observe a seemingly antagonistic scenario, where villages are in desperate need of food, alternating between states of surplus and shortage. In this scenario, the famine spreads catastrophically through space decimating villages in its wake over the course 30 seasons. This is qualitatively similar to patterns observed in long-term conflicts and places where aid has been ineffective. We also observe that famines progress over time in different ways under the ‘production’ and ‘access’ paradigms (Fig. 5). Both methods are able to alleviate famine, however the access seems to provide greater resiliency yet have less stability, presenting multiple options when identifying potential solutions (Fig. 5).
Fig. 4Fig. 5
Population dynamics: isolated village
Individual villages were resilient to famine, it was difficult to induce famines that caused large mortality or extinction of the population. This is consistent with the thought that complex interactions drive famine rather than single factors such as production. This is exemplified by the lack of relationship between production and death from famine in major famines of the twentieth century (Fig. 6). The expectation under both Neo-Malthusian doctrine and the ‘production’ paradigm is that a small isolated village should be very susceptible to famine, however, our results suggest that in a simple model of production an isolated village is more resilient than expected. This resiliency has impacts based on how to evaluate famine, and what interventions would be most appropriate. A limitation of this model is that it assumes isolated populations all participate in the subsistence economy; the limited economy provides a simplified version of a society but does capture the qualitative dynamics of a famine. Here we find that the small villages might be more resilient than expected from a simple Malthusian model and may in fact have dynamics more similar the Boserupian model. A limitation of the isolated model is the reliance on the subsistence economy creates a more closed system that would be expected in reality, but the dynamics of recovery provide insight into the real world.
Fig. 6
Population dynamics: multiple villages
To explore if increasing the size of a food network improved resilience, a group of villages laid out in a line was explored for resiliency. The model was set up such that a comparison could be made between the ‘production’ paradigm and the ‘access’ paradigm. While it is known that many factors influence trade, this model simply explores the magnitude of this effect. Those who favor the access paradigm point out that food transport is relatively straightforward, food aid has been a useful mechanism to alleviate famine, and that land tenure systems can be maintained if more land does not need to be brought into production. However, food systems contain points of vulnerability which influence food availability and nutritional quality such as; black markets, food waste, distance between people and markets. When trade is conducted a large range of distances are relevant as food travels 1500–3700 miles from production to market on average, but there are high value local markets where food travels less than 50 miles. The distance food travels to market which can account for 50%50% of costs associated with getting food to market. The distance food travels is important because as food travels intermediaries between producers and consumers can increase the price of food for consumers, increasing starvation in times of food insecurity. This model does not directly test for antagonistic interactions between villages, it assumes that if excess food is present it will be traded. This assumption limits the ability to test interactions that cause food insecurity due to political instability. In our model, we address famine amelioration through trade, assuming that if food is available in an adjacent village, trade will occur. This implies that multiple villages along the line both need to experience crop failure, for famine to cascade through space, as purchase is not explored we cannot determine if adding complexity to the economy would cause individual villages to go extinct at the expense of some villages surviving.
Cyclical nature of famine and the response of famine over time
Famine is both biological and a social phenomenon; this complex interaction causes many different responses. People who are vulnerable to famine create defined responses to minimize this vulnerability over time. Additionally, famines generally influences the young and the old, this may also have led to religious connection to fasting, which decreases the food intake of healthy individuals for a substantial portion of the year (e.g., Orthodox Christians and Orthodox Jews). When famines are acute, responses are frequently instantaneous in the form of disaster relief or migration, however if famine persists into a more chronic state then grassroots efforts at a smaller scale must fill in this food gap. Most prediction mechanisms are based on the idea of dealing with an acute disaster aid and is not focused on chronic malnutrition.
Famine impacts social groups differently in society changing famine dynamics. Long-term population cycles until the modern era seem to fit this cyclical dynamics, while there are many causes, famine certainly is one. Famine can be cyclical, for example, observed a strong correlation between war-peace cycles and population levels in response to climate. This implies under climate stress that there would be a strong seasonal variation in famine and food production. Famine is often described as complex interaction between markets, production, social norms, and the environment. Cyclical famines can be continued when simplistic explanations are used to develop policy solutions to famine, for example focusing on a technical solution without addressing social solutions. Conflict combined with periodic food shortages can lead to famine, especially when it is combined with a relatively inflexible agriculture sector (such as our model), leads to cyclical famine.
Historic examples of response to famine
Different parameter sets within the multi-village model identified scenarios where proximate villages behaved in both cooperative and competitive ways. This shows that there are multiple pathways to food security and that local dynamics will likely dictate which path is the best to pursue, and that there are qualitative similarities to historical famines can be represented by simple parameter sets (Table 3). One such example is the Norse settlements in Greenland where the Vikings had steady decline rather than abrupt extinction where the critical parameter was k (trade), as there was limited land for production due to the glaciated landscape. The changing amount of trade combined with inter-annual climate variation caused periodic famine leading to a long and steady decline, with intermittent increases in population due to migration. After large-scale trade stopped at the end of the 1300s, there were increasingly antagonistic relationships with the Thule Inuit, therefore the combination of decreased agricultural capacity, decreased trade, and increasing conflict led to a decline and extinction of the settlements. In other historic famines the critical parameter is different, for example in Somalia in 2012 the critical parameter was b (sensitivity to perturbation). In the 2012 famine there was a complex combination of factors that included inadequate production and limited access to aid that limited adaptive capacity. Long-standing structural problems due to the ongoing civil war that exacerbated a production shortfall, this was coupled with very high global grain prices, this caused a famine as there was limited adaptive capacity due to the confluence of events. However, the population quickly recovered, showing a surprising amount of resiliency even in an unstable situation. The resilience in this case was in population growth to drops in food production and the ability of food aid to ameliorate food production decreases. A final historic example is the great leap forward in China where there were over 30 million deaths, this is an example of the critical parameter being a (food production). Here population relocation and industrialization led to a decrease in agricultural production capacity. This lack of production and loss of farming expertise led to a widespread famine. This shows that while there are complex issues surrounding famine, they can be represented in a fairly simple manner, and that this model does not appear to match the catastrophic prediction of Malthusian dynamics.Table 3 Famine can occur for many reasons. Here, we explore the causes of historical famines and how they can be interpreted using the model parameters a, b, and k
From the simple to the complex: relating to the real world
Food production has steadily increased over the course of the twentieth century. Despite these increases, recent studies have expressed the idea that food production needs to nearly double by 2050 to keep pace with population. There is acknowledgement that famine is both spatially and temporally complex and that it is due to interactions. Most recent assessments of famine recognize that it is a complex situation that has to do with (1) food production; (2) food access and purchasing power; (3) sanitary conditions for preservation and utilization; (4) natural environment, and (5) political constraints. In general, the model constructed here shows that even under strong perturbation societies can rapidly reach new equilibria and maintain themselves. The multiple village model showed that famine could be ameliorated with either production or trade. This scenario also showed that famine did not propagate very far in space or time and that the system became more stable as more villages were added to the system. This favors the Boserupian model over than Malthusian model, which suggests that population collapse should occur.
Conclusions
Exploring through simulation how famine occurs in both individual villages and groups of villages is a powerful tool for understanding the qualitative dynamics of human population capacity. Food systems under both production and access scenarios proved to be resilient to small perturbations, requiring a large catastrophe to induce mortality. This appeared to discount the Malthusian model. Famines propagated in space, but tended to be temporally restricted, not spreading through different time steps (seasons of food production). This model can create dynamics where different modes of famine relief apply, but here we see that a balanced approach of both access and production appears to be the most resilient to famine. These simulations provide insight into the way the food system can be monitored. Understanding the best way to monitor food security is a major goal of the international community. Different metrics have been proposed, and subsequently revised. The metrics have been focused both on calorie production and nutritional value of those calories, often focusing on the economic conditions and public health indicators within households. Different disciplines focus on the different facets of food security focusing on the disciplinary emphasis (e.g., production, purchasing power, child malnutrition). Further, scale (global, national or local) has been used to measure food availability, accessibility, and waste . Another aspect of measurement has been metric aggregation. It has been a useful way to get large-scale data, but missing data have been a problem to widespread adoption . The metrics have done a good job at predicting overall food security and at warning for upcoming potential famines. Metrics have also been implemented across scale with regional assessments providing useful data. However, the metrics have not generally explored the resiliency of the system to shocks in the production or distribution networks. The resiliency of the food system is likely to be of increasing importance as climate is projected to threaten regional production in many areas of the globe as well as many of the world’s cities . Many of these will be due to climate change . Understanding the interconnected role of risks and resilience to those risks may help understand the recovery and extent to which indicators may be used to understand both. The resilience of a system to be able to respond to perturbations is an important metric for society. Famine has a lasting effect on those whom it impacts. However, if society can recover quickly, there is the potential to better plan for how to help people under a range of different circumstances.
The hard-frozen December morning silence was shattered by a reverberating howl. The ground seemed to come rushing towards him as equilibrium flew away like his misty breath. The spinning snowbank softened the body-blow but filled his eyes and mouth with dirty, re-plowed ice and gravel.
One second he was absent-mindedly shoveling the old, frozen-over snow fall from several days past, and the next he was thrown to the ground as the world spun and bucked like a rodeo mustang underneath him.
He was flailing his arms trying to hold onto something, anything, as the ground humped and twisted, shrieking in it’s agony beneath him. His thoughts and perhaps his screams were drowned out by the howling roar of a million freight trains filling the otherwise subdued winter morning air.
His mind was screaming, “Earthquake! earthquake!” Then the profanity came streaming out like a full on fire hose. Or maybe it wasn’t his mind screaming, he couldn’t tell.
Gasping for the breath stolen by the body slam to the snowbank, the burning hoarseness of his breathing belied the fact that he was the one screaming, unnoticed in that roaring, howling insanity totally filling the world around him.
As the world stopped spinning and the howling died down, he was able to hear other sounds, very much non-typical sounds for a cold winter’s day in December. The howling of dogs, and the excited clatter of chickens was first and foremost, the deep rumbling of the earth taking second stage to the excited animal world.
An odd crackling noise interspersed with pops and fizzles propelled him off his bruised side looking for the fire. The first tendrils of smoke coming from a shattered window made it clear what to do next.
Fire! fire! Someone shouted, but he couldn’t tell where it came from.
Running the thirty yards to the cabin was not easy in winter gear and Packs but adrenaline gave him the ability to reach the door in seconds, pushing aside the heavy oak and wrought-iron monster to survey the scene inside.
Because of preparedness training and planning, the damage was not as severe as it could have been. Sure, the windows were all broken or at least cracked but the double and triple panes had kept most of them at least weather proof.
The smoke was coming from the huge, black iron stove in the middle of the room. The pipe had burst loose from the top of the stove which was rapidly filling the room with the smell of burning pine. The acrid, stinging vapors burned his eyes as he jammed the stovepipe back into place.
Starting to turn, he was again slammed hard but this time the cause was obvious and licking his face. “Down!” Once was all it took but the big Labrador couldn’t control his shivering and querulous whining.
Bending at the knees and wrapping his arms around his big brown friend, he calmed the shaking, whining animal and himself as well. ” ‘s okay, Buddy, ‘s okay.” “It’s all over, Buddy,” “Let’s go see what happened.”
He had the strangest feeling at that moment, kind of a tingle or maybe a little buzz in his mind. Sort of like the after-affects of a heavy mushroom trip when reality isn’t quite screwed back into place yet. He brushed it off, and got up, sliding his hands one more time over the panting dog.
This time the feeling was way more pronounced, almost like an electric shock, (we okay?). “Huh?” He looked around the room searching for another person. (okay now?) He automatically replied to the question, “Sure, everything is okay now,” and stopped dead in his tracks.
He looked down into the pleading eyes of his Labrador friend and companion for over five years. “Uh, uh, uh” he couldn’t bring himself to say what he wanted to, just stuttered with the shocking realization of what had just taken place.
He knelt again, holding the big dog’s head cupped in his hands, staring into the large, liquid brown eyes. “Buddy, was that you?” The answer, tickling his mind like a tiny feather, was the last thing he heard as waves of blackness engulfed him, (me!)
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